In my previous article, we found that inefficient rookie wide receivers typically share a number of characteristics. Those include volume, draft capital, efficiency, and weight. I’m also under the impression that they break out later than the typical receiver. Let’s find out when inefficient rookie wide receivers generally become WR1s, which is defined as a wide receiver who scores at least 245 fantasy points.

Here is a quick recap of all WR1 seasons from a receiver who had under eight YPT their rookie year:

PlayerWR1 SeasonRookie YPTPPRYearRookie Targets
Antonio Bryant20087.9252795
Darrell Jackson20047.7250.9593
Dez Bryant20127.7303.7373
Dez Bryant20137.7294.4473
Dez Bryant20147.7316573
Steve Smith20097.7271320
Steve Smith20057.7340.6520
Steve Smith20067.7259.7620
Steve Smith20087.7260.1820
Steve Smith20117.72681120
Alshon Jeffery20137.6285.6248
Alshon Jeffery20147.6261.6348
DeSean Jackson20097.6251.32120
DeSean Jackson20137.6269.46120
Emmanuel Sanders20147.5301.8550
Sidney Rice20097.5262.2353
Vincent Jackson20127.4260.488
Demaryius Thomas20127.3297339
Demaryius Thomas20137.3319439
Demaryius Thomas20147.3340.9539
Demaryius Thomas20157.3271.4639
Michael Crabtree20127.3250.3486
Steve Johnson20107.3249.3314
Drew Bennett20047.2277.2446
Tyreek Hill20187.2328383
Brandon Lloyd20107.1286830
Reggie Wayne20047269.6449
Reggie Wayne20067273649
Reggie Wayne20077315.4749
Reggie Wayne20097284.4949
Reggie Wayne20107282.51049
Reggie Wayne201272711249
Robert Woods20186.9265.6685
Roy Williams20066.9255.23115
Allen Robinson20156.8304281
Allen Robinson20196.8254.9681
Davante Adams20166.8248.7366
Davante Adams20186.8329.6566
Jarvis Landry20156.8270.452112
Jarvis Landry20176.82644112
Jordy Nelson20116.8284.3454
Jordy Nelson20136.8264.4654
Jordy Nelson20146.8327.9754
Jordy Nelson20166.8306.7954
Larry Fitzgerald20056.83082115
Larry Fitzgerald20076.8300.94115
Larry Fitzgerald20086.8311.15115
Larry Fitzgerald20096.8284.26115
Larry Fitzgerald20116.8269.18115
Larry Fitzgerald20156.8284.512115
Larry Fitzgerald20166.8246.913115
Larry Fitzgerald20176.8263.6514115
Julian Edelman20136.6251.7554
Julian Edelman20196.6258.751154
Roddy White20086.5268.8468
Roddy White20096.5266.5568
Roddy White20106.5318.2668
Roddy White20116.5277.6768
Roddy White20126.5269.1868
Javon Walker20046.4299.2350
Greg Jennings20086.3265.23105
Greg Jennings20106.3274.45105
Golden Tate20145.8259.1539
Pierre Garcon20135.8279.564
Chad Johnson20035.5285.5360
Chad Johnson20045.5280.3460
Chad Johnson20055.5297.5560
Chad Johnson20065.5268.3660
Chad Johnson20075.5289.7760
T.J. Houshmandzadeh20065.4252.7642
T.J. Houshmandzadeh20075.4299.7742
Plaxico Burress20024.4254.5365
Santana Moss20032.4251.2317
Santana Moss20052.4286517

Below is a distribution graph of which seasons the previously inefficient rookie wide receivers broke out as WR1s.

5ppdev.com/web/apex/public


17 of the 33 players had multiple WR1 seasons (51%).

All five players who broke out in their 2nd season had at least one more WR1 season in their career. Those five players averaged 3.2 WR1 seasons.

8 of the 12 players to become a WR1 in their 3rd season had at least one more WR1 season. That’s a 67 percent hit rate and these players average 2.5 WR1 seasons. Note that I excluded Tyreek Hill from this group as it remains to be seen whether he will post another WR1 season.

3 of the 5 players who broke out in their 4th season had at least one more WR1 season. That’s a 60 percent hit rate and 3.4 WR1 seasons per player.

2 of the 10 players who broke out in their 5th season or later had at least one more WR1 season. That’s just a 20 percent hit rate and only 1.2 WR1 seasons per player.

This means that 15 of the 22 players (excluding Hill) who broke out as a WR1 in their 2nd-4th season produced at least one additional WR1 season. That is a 68 percent hit rate and 2.8 WR1 seasons per player.

What are some actionable takeaways from this?

We clearly see that if a player can overcome the odds and become a WR1 during his first four seasons after having an inefficient rookie campaign, then that player actually has a better than average chance of becoming a perennial WR1. Conversely, players who become WR1s after their 4th season tend to be outliers and are bad bets to produce as a WR1 again in their career. If a player falls under this category, this is a player who screams “sell-high” in dynasty.

Examining the WR1s By Age

One way to examine the WR1s is by the season of their production – another is by age at the time of the WR1 season. Let’s see if their age during the first WR1 season is more predictive and if they achieved a second WR1 season.

5ppdev.com/web/apex/public


  • 2 of 33 players became WR1s in their age-22 season (6%), both had multiple seasons as a WR1 (100%)
  • 4 of 33 players became WR1s in their age-23 season (12%). 3 of 4 had multiple seasons as a WR1 (75%)
  • 6 of 33 players became WR1s in their age-24 season (18%). 4 of 6 had multiple seasons as a WR1 (67%)
  • 6 of 33 players became WR1s in their age-25 season (18%). 3 of 6 had multiple seasons as a WR1 (50%)
  • 8 of 33 players became WR1s in their age-26 season (24%). 2 of 8 had multiple seasons as a WR1 (25%)
  • 4 of 33 players became WR1s in their age-27 season (12%). 2 of 4 had multiple seasons as a WR1 (50%)
  • 3 of 33 players became WR1s in their age-29 season (9%). Only 1 of 3 had multiple seasons as a WR1 (33%)

We can see the younger a player is when he becomes a WR1, the more likely they are to achieve a repeat WR1 season. This backs what we saw above when looking at each player by year.

Now, what happens when we start to analyze what these players may have in common prior to becoming fantasy assets? Is there something that signals an impending WR1 season amongst these players?

Let’s stay in a similar mindset and go check to see if these players were efficient in their seasons prior to their WR1 season.

Commonalities Prior To Becoming WR1s

What did these players look like prior to bucking their “inefficient rookie wide receiver” label? The table below shows what each player’s season looked like prior to becoming a WR1.

PlayerSeasonPrevious WR2 SeasonsSeasons w/ 8 YPT before WR1reYPTPPRYear
Antonio Bryant2006038.1131.35
Darrell Jackson2003228.7235.74
Dez Bryant2011119210.32
Steve Smith2002018.9158.32
Alshon Jeffery2012007.678.71
DeSean Jackson2008007.6178.81
Emmanuel Sanders2013016.5180.84
Sidney Rice2008004.553.12
Vincent Jackson2011359.6229.77
Demaryius Thomas2011007.9111.62
Michael Crabtree2011007.71863
Steve Johnson2009003.332
Drew Bennett2003019.3107.13
Tyreek Hill20170111.3239.22
Brandon Lloyd2009006.519.77
Reggie Wayne2003017.8193.83
Robert Woods2017029.2165.35
Roy Williams2005007.3161.72
Allen Robinson2014006.8116.81
Davante Adams2015005.3107.52
Jarvis Landry2014006.8189.41
Jordy Nelson2010029.1115.23
Larry Fitzgerald2004006.8185.41
Julian Edelman2012007.3674
Roddy White2007128.8239.23
Javon Walker2003019.7166.72
Greg Jennings200711112172
Golden Tate2013029.2186.94
Pierre Garcon2012129.4132.25
Chad Johnson2002118.5215.62
T.J. Houshmandzadeh2005128.3227.85
Plaxico Burress2001118.4202.82
Santana Moss2002018.3102.12

Since the inefficient rookies who broke out in Year 2 naturally wouldn’t have been efficient the prior year, I will not include them as part of this study. This leaves us with 28 players who were inefficient in their rookie seasons and became a WR1 in Year 3 or later.

  • 18 of 28 players were efficient in the season prior to becoming a WR1 (64%)
  • 8 of the 13 3rd year WR1s were efficient in their 2nd season (62%)
  • 5 of those 7 players (excluding Tyreek Hill) went on to have multiple WR1 seasons (71%)
  • Only 2 of the 5 players who were inefficient in both their first two seasons went on to have multiple WR1 seasons. (40%) It should be noted that Demaryius Thomas was at 7.9 YPT before hist first WR1 season.
  • 3 of the 5 4th year WR1s were efficient in their 3rd season (60%)
  • 4 of the 5 4th year WR1s were efficient in either their 2nd or 3rd season (80%)
  • 2 of the 5 4th year WR1s were efficient in both their 2nd and 3rd season and both players had multiple WR1 seasons (40%)
  • 7 of the 10 5th year or later WR1s were efficient in the prior season (70%)
  • 6 of those 7 players were efficient in multiple seasons prior to becoming a WR1 (86%)

This indicates that if we are to bet on a player to hit a WR1 season during or after their 5th year, we want to target someone who has been efficient for multiple seasons in their career.

These are all promising, but what if we narrow our focus and increase the target volume?

Filtering For Volume

Let’s see what happens when we filter for all players who were targeted 50 or more times in the season prior to becoming a WR1.

PlayerSeasonPrevious WR2 SeasonsSeasons w/ 8 YPT before WR1YearreTRGSreYPT
Antonio Bryant2006035918.1
Darrell Jackson20032241308.7
Dez Bryant20111121039
Steve Smith2002012978.9
Emmanuel Sanders20130141126.5
Vincent Jackson20113571159.6
Demaryius Thomas2011002707.9
Michael Crabtree20110031147.7
Drew Bennett2003013549.3
Tyreek Hill201701210511.3
Reggie Wayne20030131077.8
Robert Woods2017025859.2
Roy Williams2005002947.3
Davante Adams2015002945.3
Jordy Nelson2010023649.1
Roddy White20071231378.8
Javon Walker2003012749.7
Greg Jennings20071128411
Golden Tate2013024989.2
Pierre Garcon2012125679.4
Chad Johnson20021121378.5
T.J. Houshmandzadeh20051251158.3
Plaxico Burress20011121208.4
Santana Moss2002012528.3

This now takes out four misses from our group.

  • 18 of 24 players were efficient in their season prior to becoming a WR1 (75%)
  • 20 of 24 players were efficient at some point in their career prior to their WR1 season (83%)
  • 8 of the 11 3rd year WR1s were efficient in their season prior to their WR1 season (73%)
  • 3 of the 5 4th year WR1s were efficient in their season prior to their WR1 season (60%)
  • 7 of the 8 5th or later year WR1s were efficient in their season prior to their WR1 season (88%)

At first glance, we see that a few of our misses are actually very close to the eight YPT threshold.

Only 3 of our 24 players on this list were under 7.7 YPT in their season prior to becoming a WR1. If we include the close misses in our tally here is what we see:

  • 21 of the 24 players had a 7.7 YPT or higher in their season prior to becoming a WR1 (88%)
  • 9 of the 11 3rd year WR1s had a 7.7 YPT or higher in their 2nd season (81%)
  • These 8 players (excluding Tyreek Hill) combined for 23 WR1 seasons (2.9 per player)
  • 6 of the 8 players had multiple WR1 seasons (75%).
  • 5 of the 5 4th year WR1s had a 7.7 YPT or higher in their 3rd season (100%)
  • These 5 players combined for 17 WR1 seasons (3.4 per player)
  • 3 of the 5 players had multiple WR1 seasons (60%)
  • 7 of 8 5th or later year WR1s had a 7.7 YPT or better in their season prior to becoming a WR1 (88%)
  • These 7 players combined for 8 WR1 seasons (1.1 per player)
  • 1 of the 7 players had multiple WR1 seasons (14%).

The majority of players who end up becoming WR1s after an inefficient rookie season have an efficient season prior to breaking out. While these WR1 seasons are spread out, for the most part, we see that the earlier they are efficient the better chance they have of becoming a perennial WR1.

This should really help us narrow down which players actually have a chance of bouncing back after an inefficient rookie season. In Part 2 of this article, we’ll explore which young players might fit these profiles in 2020.