With nearly identical average draft positions, owners are clearly indecisive with who to select between Mike Evans and AJ Green.

Let’s dive into the numbers from last season.

Player GMs RECs TRGs YDs TDs YPT PPR
AJ Green 10 6.6 10 96.4 0.4 9.6 18.6
Mike Evans 16 6 10.7 82.6 0.8 7.7 18.8

By nearly any efficiency measure, with the exception of catching touchdowns, Green outperformed Evans. Evans saw 0.7 more targets per game and scored just 0.2 more fantasy points per game. Green caught more passes per game, despite seeing fewer targets, and averaged almost two more yards per target.

Let’s look at 2015 to see if we can learn anything.

Player GMs RECs TRGs YDs TDs YPT PPR
AJ Green 16 5.4 8.2 81.1 0.6 9.8 17.2
Mike Evans 15 4.9 9.9 80.7 0.2 8.2 14.2

Evans once again saw more targets per game but was less efficient and was outscored by Green. Unlike 2016, Green scored more touchdowns per game in 2015.

It will be very difficult for Evans to match his 171 targets from last season. This offseason the Buccaneers added DeSean Jackson in free agency, and drafted OJ Howard and Chris Godwin. Without the same volume, it will difficult for Evans to match Green’s efficiency.

Turning 24, age is one argument for the younger Evans. According to our wide receiver age study, at age 29 Green appears to have one more year in his prime.

My 2017 Projections have the following numbers for the two elite wide receivers.

Player TRGs RECs YDs TDs YPT PPR
AJ Green 147.2 95.7 1368.5 8.68 9.30 284.6
Mike Evans 155.3 86.2 1257.6 9.63 8.10 269.7

Per game, this amounts to the following numbers.

Player TRGs RECs YDs TDs YPT PPR
AJ Green 9.2 6 85.5 0.5 9.3 17.8
Mike Evans 9.7 5.4 78.6 0.6 8.1 16.9

With less volume, I expect Evans’ efficiency to improve and lead the two in touchdowns. Nonetheless, I expect Green to be the superior receiver. Regardless, both make quality first-round selections.

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