The NFL is consistently changing and innovating, which means that the formulas we use to make successful predictions must be continuously checked, rechecked, and updated. For predicting wide receiver success from college to the NFL, weight has historically been a very important variable. But more and more, it appears that both the highest-drafted and top-performing wide receivers are getting lighter over time.

Estimated Read Time: 12 Minutes

Are Elite Wide Receiver Prospects Getting Lighter?

On a purely anecdotal level, it appears as if the top wide receiver prospects are weighing in lighter than ever before. The days of the top wide receiver prospects weighing 210+ lbs with gigantic frames like Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, and Mike Williams are becoming rarer.

We have previously used 210+ lbs as a threshold for identifying elite wide receiver prospects. This previous study also included wide receivers drafted in the first three rounds. However, considering only about 10% of WR1 seasons since 2010 are from 3rd-round picks (and of those, only Keenan Allen weighed 210+ lbs with the appropriate BMI), we are reducing the sample size to the top two rounds.

Are the top wide receiver prospects actually coming into the league lighter, or is it our imagination?

1st and 2nd round NFL wide receivers by weight

Not only are top wide receivers coming in lighter, but they are coming in significantly lighter. This difference is more noticeable at the extremes, with the recent decline of 210+ lb. receivers being drafted in the first two rounds, and the explosion of smaller receivers who weigh under 195 lbs. In the ten drafts between 2010 and 2019, a grand total of 22 receivers who weighed 195 lbs or under were drafted in the first two rounds. In the six drafts since then alone, that number is 29.

Accordingly, the number of top 210+ lb. receivers drafted in the first two rounds (except for 2019) has been on a relatively downhill trend since 2016, at least up until recently. This crescendoed from 2020-2024, where only 7 of 42 receivers drafted in the top two rounds weighed over 210+ lbs. As rules began to tighten up on defensive backs’ physicality, the game opened up for smaller and faster receivers to dominate, especially with so few teams emphasizing slot corners and nickelbacks until the past couple of seasons.

Are Heavier Receivers Making A Comeback?

However, it appears the trend may be changing: there have now been two years in a row where the sub-195 lb receivers represented the smallest cohort among top-draft receivers, which has not occurred since 2017-8.

As NFL receivers became smaller, faster, and running games became less physical, defenses adapted accordingly. They’ve begun to value faster, more versatile players who can guard both outside and as well as slot receivers – this emphasizes quickness over size.

After a deep-passing bonanza in the 2010s and early 2020s, defenses are now all consumed with stopping the deep ball and letting offenses dink and dunk their way down the field.

Offenses appear to be responding to this trend, putting emphasis back on power running games and receivers who can turn much shorter receptions into longer gains by breaking tackles using their size. In addition, with defenses having more yet smaller bodies in the deep portion of the field, winning jump balls becomes more paramount for big gains. This typically means taller receivers, and taller receivers are usually heavier.

Using BMI Instead of Weight

Remember, weight is not the only measurement of size. If we are going to continue analyzing wide receiver size, we need to see that wide receivers are coming in lighter while still adjusting for height. Luckily, we can use body mass index (BMI) to measure weight in relation to height. As well as a 210+ lb. weight threshold, we have also previously used a BMI threshold of 27+ to identify larger, top-tier wide receiver prospects.

Are highly drafted wide receivers continuing to come in lighter relative to their weight, or just smaller in general?

1st and 2nd round NFL wide receivers by BMI

As the trendline shows, wide receivers have been coming into the league smaller in relation to their height, not just in a vacuum. But again, we are starting to trend back towards larger, heavier receivers over the past 2-3 years.

As far as the 2025 rookie class goes, there are only two receivers drafted in the first two rounds with a BMI over 27 (Luther Burden and Jack Bech). But there is also only one such receiver with a BMI under 26: unicorn 2nd overall-pick Travis Hunter.

For a more in-depth look at the newest rookie class, check out Mike Braude’s “13 Rookie Wide Receivers To Know For 2025” article.

Are The Lighter Prospects Still Producing?

Despite the recent trends, plenty of top-drafted receivers are still coming into the league with lower weights and BMIs. We need to continue asking the question, however: Is this trend still translating to the top-scoring wide receivers?

We’ll start in 2011 for this exercise to give those 2010 draftees the benefit of a sophomore breakout.

Top-12 fantasy football wide receivers by year, charted by BMI

Amount of top-12 fantasy football wide receivers under 27 BMI, charted by year

This recent trend is still carrying over into top-end fantasy production. While 2011, 2015, and 2019 appear to have favored heavier wide receivers, the trendline is still pointing toward the top-end wide receivers getting smaller. Considering that the wide receivers peak around the ages of 25-27 and the continued selections of lower BMI wide receivers at the top-end of recent NFL drafts, the trend of smaller wideouts being able to score fantasy points at elite levels is not going away unless the heavier rookie receivers from 2024 and 2025 start dominating.

What Does This Mean For 2025 Fantasy Drafts?

Although there has been a slight increase in heavier receivers prioritized in recent NFL drafts, there are ample lighter wide receivers who can’t be discounted due to their size.

Unsurprisingly, there has been an explosion in recent sub-27 BMI studs. Young, lighter players with high draft capital like Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Nico Collins, and Brian Thomas Jr. are already being drafted as top wide receiver selections in 2025 fantasy drafts.

Last year, we suggested being higher than the market on smaller sophomores such as Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR9 overall finish), Jordan Addison (WR21), and Zay Flowers (WR25) in this article. What should we think about this year’s sophomore class? Here are the outlooks for receivers with the lightest BMIs in the first couple rounds of the 2024 NFL draft:

Marvin Harrison Jr. (25 BMI) was nothing short of a massive disappointment for fantasy owners who took a stab at him in the first 1.5 rounds of 2024 fantasy drafts. The 2024 4th overall pick of the NFL draft finished as the WR30, with his smaller weight rearing its ugly head on vertical routes:

He’s reportedly put on weight this offseason in an effort to remedy this flaw and to win more after the catch. He unfortunately doesn’t appear to be much of a value at his WR14 price unless he is utilized more horizontally.

Xavier Worthy (23 BMI, smallest of any top-two round receiver in this entire study) was not immune to rookie wide receiver troubles despite being Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes’ hand-picked deep threat. He was downright bad from Weeks 1-10, averaging 2.2 catches and 27.3 yards despite Rashee Rice essentially playing three total games. But like all good rookie receivers, he turned it on during the 2nd half of the season:

He showed a real nose for the end zone and saved his best for when the lights were brightest. With a WR21 ADP and a full round cheaper than Rashee Rice, he makes for a very nice 2025 re-draft pick.

He joined a pretty sweet list of rookie receivers drafted in the first three rounds who put up 100+ yards in a playoff game (since 2010):

PlayerTeamYardsPlayoff Game DateRound Drafted
Ladd McConkeyLAC1971/11/252
D.K. MetcalfSEA1601/5/202
Xavier WorthyKAN1572/9/251
Keenan AllenSDG1421/12/143
Rashee RiceKAN1301/13/242
Marquise BrownBAL1261/11/201
Michael GallupDAL1191/12/193
Davante AdamsGNB1171/11/152
Ja'Marr ChaseCIN1161/15/221
Zay FlowersBAL1151/28/241
Ja'Marr ChaseCIN1091/22/221

Ricky Pearsall (24.9 BMI) also got off to a rough start after recovering from an unfortunate gunshot wound. Even though the wide receiver room was quickly thinned out by injuries to Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, Pearsall didn’t make his presence felt until Weeks 17-18 with a 14/210/2 statline over those games.

Even though he demonstrated elite athleticism, it’s probably best to be wary of a sophomore wide receiver with such meager Year 1 production. The WR41 cost isn’t necessarily prohibitive, though, and the 49ers will certainly need him with Jauan Jennings as the only other healthy 2025 receiver (but keep an eye on his early summer hamstring injury). The bull case is made here by the one and only Matt Harmon of Reception Perception:

Ladd McConkey (25.1 BMI) was a bit of a mystery entering the NFL, as he had little production (often due to injury) but excellent efficiency. But halfway through the season, the mystery was put to rest. Take a look at his white-hot finish en route to a WR12 overall season as a rookie:

Ladd McConkey's 2024 splits from Weeks 1-10 vs Weeks 11-18

By all metrics, he was a revelation. Considering the strength of last year’s rookie receivers, film guru Josh Norris of Underdog had some remarkably special things to say about McConkey heading into this year:

It is very tough to be too high on McConkey after his rookie campaign, but his WR11 price may be closer to his ceiling than you think. The Chargers drafted running back Omarion Hampton in the 1st round and receiver Tre Harris in the 2nd round of the 2025 NFL draft, as well as signing veteran runner Najee Harris. Greg Roman and Jim Harbaugh have never hidden their desire to play smash-mouth football and to spread the ball around.

Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire
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