When analyzing running back age, a standard must be established to compare performance in various seasons. Some use rushing yards; others use touchdowns. But what other variables can be effective? Most importantly, which running back statistic has the highest correlation to what is important – namely, fantasy points.
This article focuses on the top 24 PPR running backs from each of the last two seasons. This focus ensures currency, relevancy, and includes the most desirable running backs.
The table below measures the correlation of each major running back statistic with fantasy points:
Correlation with Fantasy Points | Percent |
---|---|
Yards From Scrimmage | 0.929 |
Total Touchdowns | 0.773 |
Total Touches | 0.753 |
Rushing Yards | 0.682 |
Receiving Yards | 0.600 |
Rushing Attempts | 0.594 |
Receptions | 0.532 |
The table confirms that yards from scrimmage has the highest correlation to fantasy points at 92.9%, followed by total touchdowns at 77.3%.
Since yards from scrimmage is arguably the most important indicator of fantasy success, we need to apply this to age.
To begin, we need to establish a benchmark number of yards from scrimmage by these runners.
How many yards from scrimmage?
Since most fantasy football leagues have 12 teams that each start two running backs, we will focus on the top 24 running backs. The following represents the top 24 running backs from 2013-2014:
Rushes | Rush Yds | Rush TDs | Recs | Rec Yds | Rec TDs | YFS | Total TDs | FPs | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Average | 222.25 | 965.4 | 7.06 | 44.88 | 367.2 | 1.85 | 1332.6 | 8.92 | 231.64 |
This data evidences that the top 24 running backs from 2013-2014 averaged 1,332.6 total yards from scrimmage. Now we can evaluate the impact of the running backs’ age.
Running Back Peak Age
Since the NFL is constantly changing, the contextual question of ‘when’ is important. I have included all running backs that topped 1,333 yards from scrimmage from 2005 to 2014. According to Pro-Football-Reference.com, 129 seasons fit the criteria.
Below is a list of those seasons, sorted by total yards from scrimmage:
Rk | Player | Year | Age | Tm | G | Touch | YScm |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Chris Johnson | 2009 | 24 | TEN | 16 | 408 | 2509 |
2 | Tiki Barber | 2005 | 30 | NYG | 16 | 411 | 2390 |
3 | Steven Jackson | 2006 | 23 | STL | 16 | 436 | 2334 |
4 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 2006 | 27 | SDG | 16 | 404 | 2323 |
5 | Adrian Peterson | 2012 | 27 | MIN | 16 | 388 | 2314 |
6 | DeMarco Murray | 2014 | 26 | DAL | 16 | 449 | 2261 |
7 | Arian Foster | 2010 | 24 | HOU | 16 | 393 | 2220 |
8 | Le'Veon Bell | 2014 | 22 | PIT | 16 | 373 | 2215 |
9 | Larry Johnson | 2006 | 27 | KAN | 16 | 457 | 2199 |
10 | Frank Gore | 2006 | 23 | SFO | 16 | 373 | 2180 |
11 | LeSean McCoy | 2013 | 25 | PHI | 16 | 366 | 2146 |
12 | Brian Westbrook | 2007 | 28 | PHI | 15 | 372 | 2104 |
13 | Larry Johnson | 2005 | 26 | KAN | 16 | 369 | 2093 |
14 | Ray Rice | 2011 | 24 | BAL | 16 | 367 | 2068 |
15 | Ray Rice | 2009 | 22 | BAL | 16 | 332 | 2041 |
16 | Jamaal Charles | 2013 | 27 | KAN | 15 | 329 | 1980 |
17 | Maurice Jones-Drew | 2011 | 26 | JAX | 16 | 386 | 1980 |
18 | Shaun Alexander | 2005 | 28 | SEA | 16 | 385 | 1958 |
19 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 2007 | 28 | SDG | 16 | 375 | 1949 |
20 | Matt Forte | 2013 | 28 | CHI | 16 | 363 | 1933 |
21 | Doug Martin | 2012 | 23 | TAM | 16 | 368 | 1926 |
22 | Brian Westbrook | 2006 | 27 | PHI | 15 | 322 | 1916 |
23 | Adrian Peterson | 2008 | 23 | MIN | 16 | 385 | 1885 |
24 | Matt Forte | 2014 | 29 | CHI | 16 | 368 | 1846 |
25 | Edgerrin James | 2005 | 27 | IND | 15 | 404 | 1843 |
26 | Arian Foster | 2011 | 25 | HOU | 13 | 331 | 1841 |
27 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 2005 | 26 | SDG | 16 | 390 | 1832 |
28 | Adrian Peterson | 2009 | 24 | MIN | 16 | 357 | 1819 |
29 | Marshawn Lynch | 2012 | 26 | SEA | 16 | 338 | 1786 |
30 | Ray Rice | 2010 | 23 | BAL | 16 | 370 | 1776 |
31 | Maurice Jones-Drew | 2009 | 24 | JAX | 16 | 371 | 1765 |
32 | Jamaal Charles | 2012 | 26 | KAN | 16 | 320 | 1745 |
33 | Michael Turner | 2008 | 26 | ATL | 16 | 382 | 1740 |
34 | Steven Jackson | 2009 | 26 | STL | 15 | 375 | 1738 |
35 | Clinton Portis | 2005 | 24 | WAS | 16 | 382 | 1732 |
36 | Willie Parker | 2006 | 26 | PIT | 16 | 368 | 1716 |
37 | Matt Forte | 2008 | 23 | CHI | 16 | 379 | 1715 |
38 | Clinton Portis | 2008 | 27 | WAS | 16 | 370 | 1705 |
39 | C.J. Spiller | 2012 | 25 | BUF | 16 | 250 | 1703 |
40 | Alfred Morris | 2012 | 24 | WAS | 16 | 346 | 1690 |
41 | Marshawn Lynch | 2014 | 28 | SEA | 16 | 317 | 1673 |
42 | LeSean McCoy | 2010 | 22 | PHI | 15 | 285 | 1672 |
43 | Darren McFadden | 2010 | 23 | OAK | 13 | 270 | 1664 |
44 | Steve Slaton | 2008 | 22 | HOU | 16 | 318 | 1659 |
45 | Peyton Hillis | 2010 | 24 | CLE | 16 | 331 | 1654 |
46 | Clinton Portis | 2007 | 26 | WAS | 16 | 372 | 1651 |
47 | Arian Foster | 2012 | 26 | HOU | 16 | 391 | 1641 |
48 | Maurice Jones-Drew | 2010 | 25 | JAX | 14 | 333 | 1641 |
49 | Adrian Peterson | 2010 | 25 | MIN | 15 | 319 | 1639 |
50 | Warrick Dunn | 2005 | 30 | ATL | 16 | 309 | 1636 |
51 | DeAngelo Williams | 2008 | 25 | CAR | 16 | 295 | 1636 |
52 | Steven Jackson | 2010 | 27 | STL | 16 | 376 | 1624 |
53 | LeSean McCoy | 2011 | 23 | PHI | 15 | 321 | 1624 |
54 | Ray Rice | 2012 | 25 | BAL | 16 | 318 | 1621 |
55 | Matt Forte | 2010 | 25 | CHI | 16 | 288 | 1616 |
56 | Chris Johnson | 2010 | 25 | TEN | 16 | 360 | 1609 |
57 | Adrian Peterson | 2007 | 22 | MIN | 14 | 273 | 1609 |
58 | Reuben Droughns | 2005 | 27 | CLE | 16 | 353 | 1601 |
59 | Ladell Betts | 2006 | 27 | WAS | 16 | 300 | 1599 |
60 | LaMont Jordan | 2005 | 27 | OAK | 14 | 342 | 1588 |
61 | Knowshon Moreno | 2013 | 26 | DEN | 16 | 301 | 1586 |
62 | Arian Foster | 2014 | 28 | HOU | 13 | 298 | 1573 |
63 | Marshawn Lynch | 2013 | 27 | SEA | 16 | 337 | 1573 |
64 | Eddie Lacy | 2014 | 23 | GNB | 16 | 288 | 1566 |
65 | Jamal Lewis | 2007 | 28 | CLE | 15 | 328 | 1552 |
66 | Ahmad Bradshaw | 2010 | 24 | NYG | 16 | 323 | 1549 |
67 | Rudi Johnson | 2005 | 26 | CIN | 16 | 360 | 1548 |
68 | Ryan Mathews | 2011 | 24 | SDG | 14 | 272 | 1546 |
69 | Frank Gore | 2007 | 24 | SFO | 15 | 313 | 1538 |
70 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 2008 | 29 | SDG | 16 | 344 | 1536 |
71 | Justin Forsett | 2014 | 29 | BAL | 16 | 279 | 1529 |
72 | Frank Gore | 2009 | 26 | SFO | 14 | 281 | 1526 |
73 | Thomas Jones | 2008 | 30 | NYJ | 16 | 326 | 1519 |
74 | Reggie Bush | 2013 | 28 | DET | 14 | 277 | 1512 |
75 | Michael Turner | 2011 | 29 | ATL | 16 | 318 | 1508 |
76 | Chester Taylor | 2006 | 27 | MIN | 15 | 345 | 1504 |
77 | Chris Johnson | 2008 | 23 | TEN | 15 | 295 | 1488 |
78 | Matt Forte | 2011 | 26 | CHI | 12 | 255 | 1487 |
79 | Willie Parker | 2007 | 27 | PIT | 15 | 344 | 1480 |
80 | Steven Jackson | 2011 | 28 | STL | 15 | 302 | 1478 |
81 | Thomas Jones | 2005 | 27 | CHI | 15 | 340 | 1478 |
82 | Chris Johnson | 2012 | 27 | TEN | 16 | 312 | 1475 |
83 | LeSean McCoy | 2014 | 26 | PHI | 16 | 340 | 1474 |
84 | DeMarco Murray | 2013 | 25 | DAL | 14 | 270 | 1471 |
85 | Chris Johnson | 2011 | 26 | TEN | 16 | 319 | 1465 |
86 | Thomas Jones | 2009 | 31 | NYJ | 16 | 341 | 1460 |
87 | Michael Turner | 2010 | 28 | ATL | 16 | 346 | 1456 |
88 | Ryan Grant | 2009 | 27 | GNB | 16 | 307 | 1450 |
89 | Frank Gore | 2012 | 29 | SFO | 16 | 286 | 1448 |
90 | Ryan Mathews | 2013 | 26 | SDG | 16 | 311 | 1444 |
91 | Rashard Mendenhall | 2010 | 23 | PIT | 16 | 347 | 1440 |
92 | Willis McGahee | 2007 | 26 | BAL | 15 | 337 | 1438 |
93 | Adrian Peterson | 2013 | 28 | MIN | 14 | 308 | 1437 |
94 | Joseph Addai | 2007 | 24 | IND | 15 | 302 | 1436 |
95 | Eddie Lacy | 2013 | 22 | GNB | 15 | 319 | 1435 |
96 | Matt Forte | 2012 | 27 | CHI | 15 | 292 | 1434 |
97 | Rudi Johnson | 2006 | 27 | CIN | 16 | 364 | 1433 |
98 | Ahman Green | 2006 | 29 | GNB | 14 | 312 | 1432 |
99 | Edgerrin James | 2007 | 29 | ARI | 16 | 348 | 1426 |
100 | Willis McGahee | 2005 | 24 | BUF | 16 | 353 | 1425 |
101 | Chris Johnson | 2013 | 28 | TEN | 16 | 321 | 1422 |
102 | Steven Jackson | 2008 | 25 | STL | 12 | 293 | 1421 |
103 | Willie Parker | 2005 | 25 | PIT | 15 | 273 | 1420 |
104 | Jamaal Charles | 2009 | 23 | KAN | 15 | 266 | 1417 |
105 | Marshawn Lynch | 2011 | 25 | SEA | 15 | 313 | 1416 |
106 | Frank Gore | 2008 | 25 | SFO | 14 | 283 | 1409 |
107 | Derrick Ward | 2008 | 28 | NYG | 16 | 224 | 1409 |
108 | Joseph Addai | 2006 | 23 | IND | 16 | 266 | 1406 |
109 | Matt Forte | 2009 | 24 | CHI | 16 | 315 | 1400 |
110 | Michael Bush | 2011 | 27 | OAK | 16 | 293 | 1395 |
111 | Maurice Jones-Drew | 2008 | 23 | JAX | 16 | 279 | 1389 |
112 | Fred Taylor | 2006 | 30 | JAX | 15 | 254 | 1388 |
113 | Ricky Williams | 2009 | 32 | MIA | 16 | 276 | 1385 |
114 | Reggie Bush | 2011 | 26 | MIA | 15 | 265 | 1382 |
115 | Maurice Jones-Drew | 2006 | 21 | JAX | 16 | 244 | 1377 |
116 | Fred Jackson | 2011 | 30 | BUF | 10 | 209 | 1376 |
117 | Edgerrin James | 2006 | 28 | ARI | 16 | 375 | 1376 |
118 | Lamar Miller | 2014 | 23 | MIA | 16 | 254 | 1374 |
119 | Rashard Mendenhall | 2009 | 22 | PIT | 16 | 268 | 1369 |
120 | DeAngelo Williams | 2009 | 26 | CAR | 13 | 245 | 1369 |
121 | Steven Jackson | 2012 | 29 | STL | 16 | 296 | 1366 |
122 | Steven Jackson | 2005 | 22 | STL | 15 | 297 | 1366 |
123 | Thomas Jones | 2006 | 28 | CHI | 16 | 332 | 1364 |
124 | Cedric Benson | 2009 | 27 | CIN | 13 | 318 | 1362 |
125 | Alfred Morris | 2013 | 25 | WAS | 16 | 285 | 1353 |
126 | Jeremy Hill | 2014 | 22 | CIN | 16 | 249 | 1339 |
127 | Brian Westbrook | 2008 | 29 | PHI | 14 | 287 | 1338 |
128 | Thomas Jones | 2007 | 29 | NYJ | 16 | 338 | 1336 |
129 | Marshawn Lynch | 2008 | 22 | BUF | 15 | 297 | 1336 |
The average age of these running backs is 25.8. The youngest player to achieve this feat is 21 (Maurice Jones-Drew). The oldest player to qualify is 32 (Ricky Williams). The following is a distribution graph of the ages of the running backs:
94.6% of the players to reach 1,333 yards from scrimmage are under the age of 30. Only two of the 129 seasons to qualify are over the age of 30. 78.3% of the seasons fall within the age range of 23 to 28.
What does that mean for this season?
The age 29 season appears to mark a significant decline. That’s pertinent for Jamaal Charles, Marshawn Lynch, and Arian Foster, who are all entering their age 29 seasons.
Just seven of the 129 players to reach 1,333 were over the age of 29. 30-year-old running backs come with plenty concern. Matt Forte and Adrian Peterson will both be 30 years old this season. The amount of work each has received in the NFL must be a cause for concern. Justin Forsett and Rashad Jennings will also be turning 30 but have seen significantly fewer touches in the NFL.
Frank Gore turns 32 this season. This age-related study would assume that the Colts are foolish if they expect to rely on him for heavy workloads.
Fred Jackson, entering his age 34 season, is another elder statesman. Owners should expect rapid decline.