Yards From Scrimmage and Running Back Age

When analyzing running back age, a standard must be established to compare performance in various seasons. Some use rushing yards; others use touchdowns. But what other variables can be effective? Most importantly, which running back statistic has the highest correlation to what is important – namely, fantasy points.

This article focuses on the top 24 PPR running backs from each of the last two seasons. This focus ensures currency, relevancy, and includes the most desirable running backs.

The table below measures the correlation of each major running back statistic with fantasy points:

Correlation with Fantasy Points	Percent
Yards From Scrimmage	0.929
Total Touchdowns	0.773
Total Touches	0.753
Rushing Yards	0.682
Receiving Yards	0.600
Rushing Attempts	0.594
Receptions	0.532

The table confirms that yards from scrimmage has the highest correlation to fantasy points at 92.9%, followed by total touchdowns at 77.3%.

Since yards from scrimmage is arguably the most important indicator of fantasy success, we need to apply this to age.

To begin, we need to establish a benchmark number of yards from scrimmage by these runners.

How many yards from scrimmage?

Since most fantasy football leagues have 12 teams that each start two running backs, we will focus on the top 24 running backs. The following represents the top 24 running backs from 2013-2014:

	Rushes	Rush Yds	Rush TDs	Recs	Rec Yds	Rec TDs	YFS	Total TDs	FPs
Average	222.25	965.4	7.06	44.88	367.2	1.85	1332.6	8.92	231.64

This data evidences that the top 24 running backs from 2013-2014 averaged 1,332.6 total yards from scrimmage. Now we can evaluate the impact of the running backs’ age.

Running Back Peak Age

Since the NFL is constantly changing, the contextual question of ‘when’ is important. I have included all running backs that topped 1,333 yards from scrimmage from 2005 to 2014. According to Pro-Football-Reference.com, 129 seasons fit the criteria.

Below is a list of those seasons, sorted by total yards from scrimmage:

Rk	Player	Year	Age	Tm	G	Touch	YScm
1	Chris Johnson	2009	24	TEN	16	408	2509
2	Tiki Barber	2005	30	NYG	16	411	2390
3	Steven Jackson	2006	23	STL	16	436	2334
4	LaDainian Tomlinson	2006	27	SDG	16	404	2323
5	Adrian Peterson	2012	27	MIN	16	388	2314
6	DeMarco Murray	2014	26	DAL	16	449	2261
7	Arian Foster	2010	24	HOU	16	393	2220
8	Le'Veon Bell	2014	22	PIT	16	373	2215
9	Larry Johnson	2006	27	KAN	16	457	2199
10	Frank Gore	2006	23	SFO	16	373	2180
11	LeSean McCoy	2013	25	PHI	16	366	2146
12	Brian Westbrook	2007	28	PHI	15	372	2104
13	Larry Johnson	2005	26	KAN	16	369	2093
14	Ray Rice	2011	24	BAL	16	367	2068
15	Ray Rice	2009	22	BAL	16	332	2041
16	Jamaal Charles	2013	27	KAN	15	329	1980
17	Maurice Jones-Drew	2011	26	JAX	16	386	1980
18	Shaun Alexander	2005	28	SEA	16	385	1958
19	LaDainian Tomlinson	2007	28	SDG	16	375	1949
20	Matt Forte	2013	28	CHI	16	363	1933
21	Doug Martin	2012	23	TAM	16	368	1926
22	Brian Westbrook	2006	27	PHI	15	322	1916
23	Adrian Peterson	2008	23	MIN	16	385	1885
24	Matt Forte	2014	29	CHI	16	368	1846
25	Edgerrin James	2005	27	IND	15	404	1843
26	Arian Foster	2011	25	HOU	13	331	1841
27	LaDainian Tomlinson	2005	26	SDG	16	390	1832
28	Adrian Peterson	2009	24	MIN	16	357	1819
29	Marshawn Lynch	2012	26	SEA	16	338	1786
30	Ray Rice	2010	23	BAL	16	370	1776
31	Maurice Jones-Drew	2009	24	JAX	16	371	1765
32	Jamaal Charles	2012	26	KAN	16	320	1745
33	Michael Turner	2008	26	ATL	16	382	1740
34	Steven Jackson	2009	26	STL	15	375	1738
35	Clinton Portis	2005	24	WAS	16	382	1732
36	Willie Parker	2006	26	PIT	16	368	1716
37	Matt Forte	2008	23	CHI	16	379	1715
38	Clinton Portis	2008	27	WAS	16	370	1705
39	C.J. Spiller	2012	25	BUF	16	250	1703
40	Alfred Morris	2012	24	WAS	16	346	1690
41	Marshawn Lynch	2014	28	SEA	16	317	1673
42	LeSean McCoy	2010	22	PHI	15	285	1672
43	Darren McFadden	2010	23	OAK	13	270	1664
44	Steve Slaton	2008	22	HOU	16	318	1659
45	Peyton Hillis	2010	24	CLE	16	331	1654
46	Clinton Portis	2007	26	WAS	16	372	1651
47	Arian Foster	2012	26	HOU	16	391	1641
48	Maurice Jones-Drew	2010	25	JAX	14	333	1641
49	Adrian Peterson	2010	25	MIN	15	319	1639
50	Warrick Dunn	2005	30	ATL	16	309	1636
51	DeAngelo Williams	2008	25	CAR	16	295	1636
52	Steven Jackson	2010	27	STL	16	376	1624
53	LeSean McCoy	2011	23	PHI	15	321	1624
54	Ray Rice	2012	25	BAL	16	318	1621
55	Matt Forte	2010	25	CHI	16	288	1616
56	Chris Johnson	2010	25	TEN	16	360	1609
57	Adrian Peterson	2007	22	MIN	14	273	1609
58	Reuben Droughns	2005	27	CLE	16	353	1601
59	Ladell Betts	2006	27	WAS	16	300	1599
60	LaMont Jordan	2005	27	OAK	14	342	1588
61	Knowshon Moreno	2013	26	DEN	16	301	1586
62	Arian Foster	2014	28	HOU	13	298	1573
63	Marshawn Lynch	2013	27	SEA	16	337	1573
64	Eddie Lacy	2014	23	GNB	16	288	1566
65	Jamal Lewis	2007	28	CLE	15	328	1552
66	Ahmad Bradshaw	2010	24	NYG	16	323	1549
67	Rudi Johnson	2005	26	CIN	16	360	1548
68	Ryan Mathews	2011	24	SDG	14	272	1546
69	Frank Gore	2007	24	SFO	15	313	1538
70	LaDainian Tomlinson	2008	29	SDG	16	344	1536
71	Justin Forsett	2014	29	BAL	16	279	1529
72	Frank Gore	2009	26	SFO	14	281	1526
73	Thomas Jones	2008	30	NYJ	16	326	1519
74	Reggie Bush	2013	28	DET	14	277	1512
75	Michael Turner	2011	29	ATL	16	318	1508
76	Chester Taylor	2006	27	MIN	15	345	1504
77	Chris Johnson	2008	23	TEN	15	295	1488
78	Matt Forte	2011	26	CHI	12	255	1487
79	Willie Parker	2007	27	PIT	15	344	1480
80	Steven Jackson	2011	28	STL	15	302	1478
81	Thomas Jones	2005	27	CHI	15	340	1478
82	Chris Johnson	2012	27	TEN	16	312	1475
83	LeSean McCoy	2014	26	PHI	16	340	1474
84	DeMarco Murray	2013	25	DAL	14	270	1471
85	Chris Johnson	2011	26	TEN	16	319	1465
86	Thomas Jones	2009	31	NYJ	16	341	1460
87	Michael Turner	2010	28	ATL	16	346	1456
88	Ryan Grant	2009	27	GNB	16	307	1450
89	Frank Gore	2012	29	SFO	16	286	1448
90	Ryan Mathews	2013	26	SDG	16	311	1444
91	Rashard Mendenhall	2010	23	PIT	16	347	1440
92	Willis McGahee	2007	26	BAL	15	337	1438
93	Adrian Peterson	2013	28	MIN	14	308	1437
94	Joseph Addai	2007	24	IND	15	302	1436
95	Eddie Lacy	2013	22	GNB	15	319	1435
96	Matt Forte	2012	27	CHI	15	292	1434
97	Rudi Johnson	2006	27	CIN	16	364	1433
98	Ahman Green	2006	29	GNB	14	312	1432
99	Edgerrin James	2007	29	ARI	16	348	1426
100	Willis McGahee	2005	24	BUF	16	353	1425
101	Chris Johnson	2013	28	TEN	16	321	1422
102	Steven Jackson	2008	25	STL	12	293	1421
103	Willie Parker	2005	25	PIT	15	273	1420
104	Jamaal Charles	2009	23	KAN	15	266	1417
105	Marshawn Lynch	2011	25	SEA	15	313	1416
106	Frank Gore	2008	25	SFO	14	283	1409
107	Derrick Ward	2008	28	NYG	16	224	1409
108	Joseph Addai	2006	23	IND	16	266	1406
109	Matt Forte	2009	24	CHI	16	315	1400
110	Michael Bush	2011	27	OAK	16	293	1395
111	Maurice Jones-Drew	2008	23	JAX	16	279	1389
112	Fred Taylor	2006	30	JAX	15	254	1388
113	Ricky Williams	2009	32	MIA	16	276	1385
114	Reggie Bush	2011	26	MIA	15	265	1382
115	Maurice Jones-Drew	2006	21	JAX	16	244	1377
116	Fred Jackson	2011	30	BUF	10	209	1376
117	Edgerrin James	2006	28	ARI	16	375	1376
118	Lamar Miller	2014	23	MIA	16	254	1374
119	Rashard Mendenhall	2009	22	PIT	16	268	1369
120	DeAngelo Williams	2009	26	CAR	13	245	1369
121	Steven Jackson	2012	29	STL	16	296	1366
122	Steven Jackson	2005	22	STL	15	297	1366
123	Thomas Jones	2006	28	CHI	16	332	1364
124	Cedric Benson	2009	27	CIN	13	318	1362
125	Alfred Morris	2013	25	WAS	16	285	1353
126	Jeremy Hill	2014	22	CIN	16	249	1339
127	Brian Westbrook	2008	29	PHI	14	287	1338
128	Thomas Jones	2007	29	NYJ	16	338	1336
129	Marshawn Lynch	2008	22	BUF	15	297	1336

The average age of these running backs is 25.8. The youngest player to achieve this feat is 21 (Maurice Jones-Drew). The oldest player to qualify is 32 (Ricky Williams). The following is a distribution graph of the ages of the running backs:

94.6% of the players to reach 1,333 yards from scrimmage are under the age of 30. Only two of the 129 seasons to qualify are over the age of 30. 78.3% of the seasons fall within the age range of 23 to 28.

What does that mean for this season?

The age 29 season appears to mark a significant decline. That’s pertinent for Jamaal Charles, Marshawn Lynch, and Arian Foster, who are all entering their age 29 seasons.

Just seven of the 129 players to reach 1,333 were over the age of 29. 30-year-old running backs come with plenty concern. Matt Forte and Adrian Peterson will both be 30 years old this season. The amount of work each has received in the NFL must be a cause for concern. Justin Forsett and Rashad Jennings will also be turning 30 but have seen significantly fewer touches in the NFL.

Frank Gore turns 32 this season. This age-related study would assume that the Colts are foolish if they expect to rely on him for heavy workloads.

Fred Jackson, entering his age 34 season, is another elder statesman. Owners should expect rapid decline.

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